CIMB maintained its “add” call on Malayan Cement Bhd (MCement) with a higher target price (TP) of RM5.08, from RM3.97, amid stronger recovery in volumes. https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/670352 https://assets.theedgemarkets.com/pics/2023/20230608cement1.png Quite a big jump for analyst Chong to make, from RM3.97 to RM5.08 (Still figuring out what my own TP should be) Today’s Price : RM3.22 PE : 37.1 (PE will come down, Q1 EPS was 0.07s, Q2 1.16s, and Q3 4.83s if the quarterly profit trend continues) NTA : RM4.48
To understand better … In 2019, YTL bought a 51% stake in Lafarge Malaysia for RM1.63 billion cash, or RM3.75 per share, from AICL (Associated International Cement Ltd) which was on a divestment spree in the region. Subsequently, a mandatory general offer (MGO) to buyout the remaining shares at RM3.75 per share. The transaction price of RM3.75 per share was 19% above Lafarge Malaysia’s five-day volume weighted average share price of RM3.15 https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/ytl-cement-completes-acquisition-51-stake-lafarge-malaysia? Subsequently in 2021, Malayan Cement took over YTL Cement's cement and ready-mixed concrete biz in RM5.16b deal (RM2b cash, shares plus preference shares at RM3.75) https://www.edgeprop.my/content/1845373/malayan-cement-take-over-ytl-cements-cement-and-ready-mixed-concrete-biz-rm516b-deal The aim was to consolidate the cement business under a singular umbrella, improving operational efficiencies, leveraging shared expertise, experience and resources.
Presently, MCement has the largest market share of 65%, followed by CIMA 19%, Hume 9%, Tasek 6% https://www.bondsupermart.com/bsm/article-detail/malayan-cement-s-completes-acquisition-of-ytl-cement-positioning-itself-for-market-leadership-RCMS_262545 The MCB Group is the largest cement producer in the country. It operates four integrated cement plants – in Langkawi, Kanthan, Padang Rengas, and Bukit Sagu. A fifth, the 71-year old plant in Rawang, is undergoing planned refurbishments. The Group also operates four grinding stations, three cement terminal facilities, and two cement depots. The integration of YTL Cement businesses in Malaysia under MCB has delivered logistical and cost synergies, to better serve customers. The strategic coastal location of MCB’s Langkawi Plant with its direct sea access allows the Group to export clinker and cement competitively, and provide clinker by sea to the two grinding stations in the South. The MCB Group has 72 ready-mixed concrete batching plants across Peninsular Malaysia and three quarries in Pantai Remis in Perak, Hulu Langat in Selangor and Kota Tinggi in Johor. The Group’s concrete division is the supplier of choice for complex and large-scale infrastructure projects, supplying technically sophisticated products to meet the evolving needs of construction projects in the country. The concrete division’s network of operations throughout Peninsular Malaysia allowed the Group to fully capitalise on development opportunities, while simultaneously supporting our customers nationwide. Our aggregates quarries also continued to perform despite challenging conditions. The Kota Tinggi Quarry stepped up its export of quarry products to Singapore and our Pantai Remis Quarry was able to effectively capitalise on the quarry product shortage in the Northern market.
What determines the profit outlook? a) Cement price CIMB’s Chong said ….“ASP has risen by 11% over the past six months to RM410-420/mt ….. It is quite hard to find quoted price/chart of bulk cement for M’sia for tracking purpose eg S’pore’s available … https://www.statista.com/statistics/993391/market-price-bulk-cement-singapore/ The average price of cement (Ordinary Portland) also increased 1.1 per cent to RM22.40/ 50 kilogramme (kg) compared to RM22.15/ 50 kg in February 2023 https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2023/04/07/stats-depts-finds-steel-cement-prices-continue-to-rise-in-march/ 10 Mar 2023 — In a statement today, DoSM said the average price of cement (ordinary Portland) rose 1.5 per cent to RM21.99 per 50 kilogrammes (kg) from RM21. https://www.bernama.com/en/business/news.php?id=2171885 I believe a small increase in asking price can make a lot of difference in profit. Eg can also be seen in the smaller competitor, HumeInd. Q2 EPS shot up from 0.89s to 5.36s for Q3 reported on 16th May 2023
Cement manufacturer Associated Pan Malaysia Cement (APMC) (YTL Cement) has won an appeal to evict a century-old Buddhist monastery located on land in Gunung Kanthan, Perak.
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Deep value being recognised