AFFIN BANK BERHAD

KLSE (MYR): AFFIN (5185)

You're accessing 15 mins delay data. Turn on live stream now to enjoy real-time data!

Last Price

2.61

Today's Change

-0.04 (1.51%)

Day's Change

2.60 - 2.67

Trading Volume

3,038,500


2 people like this.

3,788 comment(s). Last comment by aklobi 6 hours ago

TheContrarian

8,212 posts

Posted by TheContrarian > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

I have put my Affin sale proceeds into good use by buying BIMB at 2.24 to 2.25 and Cepat at 0.71.

calvintaneng

52,817 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

TheContrarian

Yesterday took Mr Calvintaneng advice and bought Cepat at 71 sen, now Cepat 74 sen. Thank you.

8 hours ago

Very smart move

But also get some TSH and hold till Rm2.00
Then Rm3 to Rm5!

See

How nice to know TSH RESOURCES got 94,700 Acres Lands in IKN NUSANTARA

Book Value about Rm5,000 per acre (Current market value as high as Rm1 Million per acre

See

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P27JpoUUUsw

Investing like this now we know why Warren Buffet said, "I know I will be rich"

aklobi

265 posts

Posted by aklobi > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Personally, I am refraining from buying any stocks until there is a market correction. I believe the market has risen tremendously, and keeping the cash is safer.

beluga

270 posts

Posted by beluga > 5 days ago | Report Abuse

“Maybe in one or two months, we will have our own bank and the structure I cannot reveal to you tonight...“I will reveal at the right time how we want to structure the bank. In other words, this bank will be the bank that boosts our small-medium enterprises (SMEs) because we want our SMEs to be very active and participate in our expanding economy,”

excerpt from news article : https://www.theborneopost.com/2024/02/14/sarawak-to-continue-pursuing-economic-restructuring-this-year-under-pcds-2030-says-abg-jo/

“I will reveal …. HOW WE WANT TO STRUCTURE THE BANK..” ??!!

Tan Sri Abang Johari, how big is Sarawak shareholding block that will ALLOW you to STRUCTURE the bank the way you want ? It’s definitely NOT 30% ! It is obvious with that kind of confidence level, I think you must be referring to a shareholding block of 50% at minimum!! You need to buyout Bank of East Asia’s stake for you to “structure the bank"

ps : Temasek Holdings and Ong Beng Seng via Vertical Theme Sdn Bhd is the largest shareholder with 29% shareholding in Alliance Bank Malaysia Berhad (ABMB) . ABMB second largest shareholder is EPF with 10% shareholding only. ABMB has only 2 non-independent directors out of total 10 directors.

Do you think the Singapore sovereign wealth fund & Mr Ong, a Singaporean think they “own” Alliance Bank or “structure Alliance bank the way they want"? Hmmm… Let alone Affin Bank second largest shareholder has 24% shareholding (already with 2 nominee directors in the board as part of their agreement with Affin)

beluga

270 posts

Posted by beluga > 5 days ago | Report Abuse

https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/anz-claims-unable-control-ambank-says-report

ANZ, yes, we know you can’t just turn up and demand things. We know you don't CONTROL or OWN the bank despite 24% stake in the bank and the nomination of two of directors to its board. Not even at 30%. :)

metaverse

111 posts

Posted by metaverse > 5 days ago | Report Abuse

Malaysia’s Southern Bank rejects hostile offer

The robust defence from the country’s second-smallest bank sets the scene for a highly charged takeover battle, the largest in Malaysia’s financial sector to date and one that could result in one of the biggest deals in south-east Asia this year.

Southern Bank’s blunt statement to the stock exchange did not identify its potential alternative partner. But it said it had asked the central bank for permission to enter into negotiations, a local requirement.

“The board believes an alternative takeover partner will be available that will maximise value to our shareholders,” Southern said, describing the would-be partner as a “major local financial institution”.

Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank have been widely touted as possible partners for Southern, which said last week it was looking for a “white knight” suitor after months of talks with BCH failed to yield a friendly deal.

https://www.ft.com/content/f0b07fc0-9d4a-11da-b1c6-0000779e2340

metaverse

111 posts

Posted by metaverse > 5 days ago | Report Abuse

Another senior member of LTAT leadership resigns

KUALA LUMPUR: Another member of the Armed Forces Fund Board's (LTAT) leadership has resigned, making it three resignations over the past one month at the pension fund for 120,000 serving members of the Malaysian Armed Forces.

The head of strategic asset allocation for LTAT, or senior director of strategy, Dayana Rogayah Omar, 39, has tendered her resignation.

https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/02/1015046/another-senior-member-ltat-leadership-resigns

beluga

270 posts

Posted by beluga > 5 days ago | Report Abuse

https://www.facebook.com/unitkomunikasidanpenerangansarawak/videos/1445819359341639

watch from clip 34:00/54:56 onwards for 1 min

"that is why you have been reading of our move to take a majority stake in one commercial bank....... "

"...... that is why we must have OUR OWN commercial bank that will give support to our private sector... "

GSX1111

7 posts

Posted by GSX1111 > 5 days ago | Report Abuse

Majority stake typically will trigger GO..now is a guessing game on price

GSX1111

7 posts

Posted by GSX1111 > 5 days ago | Report Abuse

those bank that with sell call, it is a trap so that can buy low

klee

2,746 posts

Posted by klee > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

The white hair aka pekmo of sarawak passed on this morning.Sarawak will usher in a new era.Nusantara of indon will further spur the development in the state.This bank will have all the benefits.

klee

2,746 posts

Posted by klee > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

first target rm3

metaverse

111 posts

Posted by metaverse > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

祸兮福所倚,福兮祸所伏。I think not many people in Sarawak especially Chinese communities like baimao beside few super rich billionaires timber tycoons as baimao was Sarawak King in olden time and treated Sarawak as his private kingdom. Due to his selfishness which disallowed no one to touch his private kingdom including those corrupted leaders from West Malaysia so until now Sarawak remains a well protected area and on the way to become the economic powerhouse in Malaysia.

beluga

270 posts

Posted by beluga > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

hopefully the price will be premium times price book ratio ... that's also typical price for controlling stake.

aklobi

265 posts

Posted by aklobi > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Congratulations to all the diehard Affinians still holding on to the stock. Affin never disappoints.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

I will buy back later

LubeTrader

224 posts

Posted by LubeTrader > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

beluga, from your experience what's the perceived acceptable premium assuming Affin is trading 0.6x PB, for successful takeover?

klee

2,746 posts

Posted by klee > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Politically sarawak n sabah will be allotted one third of all parliament seats in the near future,guaranteeing their 'king maker' role.Economically all the huge o& g reserves are there too.
Further in this era of green renewable energy,sarawak boasts the largest numbers of rivers for hydro power generation.

klee

2,746 posts

Posted by klee > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Go figure the future of affin in sarawakian hands.

klee

2,746 posts

Posted by klee > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Not forgetting Nusantara,sarawak's neighbour.

klee

2,746 posts

Posted by klee > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

BNM approval is the final hurdle to clear to send affin into space.
And does BNM dare not to approve? :)

LubeTrader

224 posts

Posted by LubeTrader > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

If everything is done according to procedure and above board there's no reason for BNM to disapprove.

klee

2,746 posts

Posted by klee > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Lets put it this way,if jib gor can get discount 50%,what is a bnm approval for just a mere increase in bank state?Politics do wonders.

beluga

270 posts

Posted by beluga > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

I posted the below 2 weeks ago. I'll copy and repost :

I believe that the purchase consideration for Affin Bank (ABB) is going to represent an average PBR of 1.3 times (with minimum 0.90). Coincidentally, BEA invested in ABB at 1.3 PBR times in 2007. It is my humble opinion. It is fine that you think it's a crazy valuation from me. We can agree to disagree. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.

Basis of and Justification for the Price Book Ratio (PBR) : precedent transactions involving the acquisition of financial institutions listed in Malaysia as below

https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=226950&name=EA_DS_ATTACHMENTS

(page 8 : refer to 20/313).

Selected precedent transactions involving the acquisition of financial institutions listed in Malaysia PBRs ranging from 0.93 times to 2.35 times over the last 15 years from 2007 are as follows:

2013 Bank Islam Malaysia Berhad BIMB Holdings Berhad 1.88

2008 Bank Muamalat Malaysia Berhad DRB-Hicom Berhad 2.15

2018 Asian Finance Bank Berhad MBSB 1.30

2013 Hwang DBS Affin Holdings 1.28

2012 OSK Investment Bank Berhad RHB Capital Berhad 1.77

2012 ECM Libra Investment Bank Berhad Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad 1.27

2011 RHB Capital Berhad Aabar Investments 2.35

2011 EON Capital Berhad Hong Leong Bank Berhad 1.42

2008 EON Capital Berhad Primus Pacific Partners 2.21

2008 RHB Capital Berhad Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank 2.18

2007 Affin Holdings Bank of East Asia 1.30


2007 MIDF PNB 0.93

2007 RHB Capital Berhad Employees Provident Fund of Malaysia 1.76

2007 AMMB Holdings Berhad Australia and New Zealand Banking Group 1.29

klee

2,746 posts

Posted by klee > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

And sarawak sovereign fund Rm8 billions in size n increasing.

https://www.asiaasset.com/post/27799-sswf3010-gte-1030

klee

2,746 posts

Posted by klee > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

my best guess is the fund is being activated to buy affin in open mkt

beluga

270 posts

Posted by beluga > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

sarawak, ltat and mindef (government) wants to redistribute some wealth to the people.

metaverse

111 posts

Posted by metaverse > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Abang Jo is a humble person and always walk his talk but in corporate takeover deal this will back fire as you never tip off the wolf of wall street to plan ahead so both sides are trying to buildup war chest and what we see here is only the smoke and yet to see the real fire. So those who are late to the party the night is still young.

Quek Leng Chan is holding the ace card via BEA and the wind is so cold that he is really quiet about this deal and GO is out of the equation as BNM will not approve the talk if the deal involved privatization (just my wild guess) as BNM is trying to institutionalize our banking landscape to avoid the soup opera drama likes Silicon Valley Bank.

Knowing QLC's style on hostile takeover, he will squeeze the last drop of juice out of his opponent's pocket in order to cease fire and call it a day or meaning to say "2011 EON Capital Berhad Hong Leong Bank Berhad 1.42"

klee

2,746 posts

Posted by klee > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

epf block,anyway its just matter of time

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Optimism +++++

klee

2,746 posts

Posted by klee > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

negative ppl can only be those who dunno fa,ta n current development of affairs

GSX1111

7 posts

Posted by GSX1111 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Affin NAB is 4.69. If 1 times of PBV, means likely MO at RM4.69. That is huge premium of current price RM2.65.

GSX1111

7 posts

Posted by GSX1111 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

But wonder why the market price did not react to this NAB of 4.69. It is kind of slow climb.

klee

2,746 posts

Posted by klee > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

sarawak still negotiating with ltat,too fast price appreciation is not favourable to buying party

rohank71

723 posts

Posted by rohank71 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

#GSK, today banks don't trade at premium to book coz of lots of Toxic assets/book. even US banks trade at discount to book. Affin is know to have toxic assets which doesn't provide any returns, hence it has been trading a huge discount. one way is to write down the toxic asset and do a deal. which will mean the book value will drop...
I have been hoping for 0.65 to 0.75 times book. or abt 3.20 per share.
LTAT also knows that Affins book is toxic.

LubeTrader

224 posts

Posted by LubeTrader > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

rohank71, appreciate you pointing out this factor that many failed to consider. I'm pretty sure there are non-performing, money-losing assets/investments in Affin's book. Still after discounting these, fair value per share as you calculated is 3.20- Yes the night is still young.

beluga

270 posts

Posted by beluga > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Indeed the assets quality of Affin has always been doubt by the market. That explains the huge discount. Mainly it’s because of their affiliation with LTAT and Boustead.

At the same time, I think the market failed to recognise that no matter how badly managed these two institution are, they have an IMPLICIT guaranteed from MOF (the government)… yes in other words, taxpayer money. It is not too-big-to-fail case ; but too-political-important-to-fail. It’s just like Tabung Haji. You do not want to upset the people from the Armed Forces.

Eventually these implicit guaranteed, became an explicit guaranteed from the government. Just like what happened few months ago, the MOF guaranteed the RM2 billion loan for LTAT/BHB in Oct 2023 for them to takeover BPlant and remaining to settle the debt due in December 2023. Yes, almost 900 million loan guaranteed by MOF for LTAT/BHB to settle their debt (sukuk) that was due in Dec 2023. (correct, NEW debt to pay OLD debt, but this time EXPLICIT guarantee by government. From implicit to explicit..).

These assets quality in question…however improbable to default were to crystallise, ultimately, it won't be Affin Bank's problem. It will be Malaysians' problem.

Maybe this short opinion shall explain why our Ringgit is always on pressure..and hitting low. The country debt and liabilities is RM1.45 trillion .. excluding those implicit guarantee commitments.

ps : US banks and our banks, especially Affin are ocean wide different. Ours are relatively “easier" to value due to the almost non existence of complex structured derivatives in their books. Here, mostly plain vanilla kind derivatives only.

beluga

270 posts

Posted by beluga > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

From Boustead Holdings Berhad Independent Adviser Circular to Shareholders by Kenanga Investment Bank :

"We are of the view that the PBR is the most appropriate valuation methodology for ABB due to, amongst others, the following: (i) We have adopted the PBR valuation methodology in arriving at the estimated value of ABB in view that ABB Group constitutes financial entities.

For a financial entity, the NA size can be an important driver of future potential earnings and hence its valuation given that the size of the NA would, amongst other, determine the scale of financing activities for the financial entity to undertake. Further, the assets of financial entities are largely in the form of financial assets such as loans, government and corporate bonds and equity investments, whereby these assets as well as the investment financial entities’ liabilities are recorded at current market values as at the balance sheet date as reported in the financial entities’ audited financial statements.

As at 31 December 2022, more than 90% of ABB’s unaudited total assets comprise of cash, deposits, financial assets and loans. The book values of such assets are expected to be close to the market value.

We are of the view that the carrying values of these assets are expected to approximate to their fair value after taking into consideration, amongst others, the nature of cash and deposits which are expected to be relatively liquid as well as the annual impairment review on the financial assets and loans being conducted on the carrying value of these assets. ABB has provided allowance for impairment losses on financing and other financing as well as impairment losses on other assets. Based on information made available, as at the LPD, we are of the view that there is no indication of potential impairment which may be required on the carrying values of these assets as at 31 December 2022.

Premised on the above, we are of the view that the PBR approach would be most appropriate valuation methodology to value ABB "

metaverse

111 posts

Posted by metaverse > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Yes, confirmed beluga is a full time US fund manager. Small traders like us don't have this kind of financial knowledge to understand why Abang Jo has underpaid Affin. I am totally surprised Quek Leng Chan failed to put up a good show as this kind of half-baked takeover deal is his expertise to squeeze his opponent so in a way he thinks to have a business partner like Abang Jo will add lubricant to his HL group because down the road Sarawak will be flooded with mega projects. PMX dare not to mess with Abang Jo, DAP has to fly to Sarawak and said sorry to them and even with an ACE card on hand, QLC also keep quiet and let Abang Jo show hand as if he is holding the best card on the table 😁

beluga

270 posts

Posted by beluga > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Haha. I wish @metaverse. If I'm fund manager, you would see XXX fund owns 4.9% of ABB already in the shareholders list! Unfortunately, I do not have OPM to take large stake in ABB. I am just a small fish investor. I am a minority shareholder of ABB. I have a vested interest in ABB. I am bullish on ABB since long time. I did went to post graduate business school at Cass. I had investment experiences. I have much interest in finance. I read a lot. I am investing for my own only. Maybe Affin IB should offer me a job though. PM me the offer! Haha. :P

rohank71

723 posts

Posted by rohank71 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

#beluga, thank you for your explanation and clarification. let's all hope for the highest price possible for Affin, which may force Swak to work hard on their huge investment.

LubeTrader

224 posts

Posted by LubeTrader > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

One question guys...something I can't seem to find an explanation. Why is EPF actively disposing?

metaverse

111 posts

Posted by metaverse > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Just a wile guess. Maybe due to Affin's low rating on ESG as EPF is one of the top 20 largesnt pension funds in the world so when they have to benchmark each other how they are ranked in ESG.

Top 20 largest pension funds in the world:

https://i.postimg.cc/Bb5HSj8p/top-pension-fund.jpg

https://www.sinchew.com.my/news/20240223/yl/5411308

泰益功过历史自有定谳
在维持砂拉越现有的和谐与多元基础上,泰益的贡献不可抹杀,而砂拉越在联邦政治版图中所拥有的政治地位,尽管是已故首长阿德南沙登的政治遗产,但这也是泰益的保护主义所奠基而来的。

metaverse

111 posts

Posted by metaverse > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Fast forward to year 2030, due to political issue, most high tech companies in Kulim High Tech Park faced no choice but to relocate to Bintulu to take advantages of Bintulu's port facility and clean energy such as hydrogen. Due to constant water issue, most high tech companies in Penang also pulling out and move their operation next to WD's mega factory in Sarawak. Due to energy crisis in Sabah because Sabah Energy SB is buying 0.4 from KL's IPP and selling 0.3 to Sabah's consumer so those small factories in Sabah also faced no choice but relocate to Sarawak and Abang Jo said in order to create a self-contained economy to decouple from West Malaysia's collapsing economy all companies doing business in Sarawak is "encouraged" to use only the banking services provided by Sarawak bank. Also in year 2030, the price of oil is as low as can water as no one will use dirty fuel anymore 😁

metaverse

111 posts

Posted by metaverse > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Big data firms need to use a lot of cold water to cool down their servers and due to the pressure from environmental group those big data firms have no choice but to avoid dirty energy and use clean energy. So for that matters, most of the high tech firms will eventually relocate to Sarawak as Sarawak have the longest Kajang River with plenty of fresh water and Sarawak is also a top player in RE. As far as the problem of skilled engineers is concerned, due to the Sarawak's natural beauty (to attract international top notch digital nomads) and their world's class education system with the ability to speak international languages fluently this well protected region will become the next economic superpower.

beluga

270 posts

Posted by beluga > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Even WEIRDER is that EPF only dispose Affin.

Malaysia has 10 listed banks. EPF choose to dispose ABB while purchased ALL of the rest. Interesting right?

Did EPF send a team to do a due diligence on ABB? I doubt.
Did ABB management allow EPF team to look into its books other than publicly available information? I doubt.
Did ABB fail BNM stress test ? Nope.
Did Affin Capital Adequacy Ratio and Liquidity Coverage Ratio (or other metrics like Loan loss coverage etc) fall below regulatory requirement or below its peer average? Nope.
Did any rating company downgraded ABB debt facilities? Nope.
Is ABB Gross Impaired Loan much higher than its peers? Nope.
Did ABB fail to make its ROE greater than its cost of capital? Nope.
Is ABB trading at premium compared to its peer? Nope. In fact the cheapest.

All the challenges especially macroeconomic challenges that ABB is facing is also faced by all other banks. So why did EPF choose to dispose Affin only? I also don’t know. :)

But then, EPF total funds is RM 1 TRILLION. The transacted value in ABB is just a drop in the ocean. I don’t know what they are doing or trying to do with this disposal.

LubeTrader

224 posts

Posted by LubeTrader > 1 day ago | Report Abuse

Is it possible a "hidden entity" is involved?

aklobi

265 posts

Posted by aklobi > 6 hours ago | Report Abuse

@beluga, Affin is a promising stock, but has gone up wildly in very short time. Also, as @TheContrarian mentioned before, the medium term outlook for Affin isn't so bright considering the costs the bank would endure after the Sarawak takeover due to opening new branches etc. Taking all that into account, I believe a price between RM 2 - 2.20 (FOR THE MEDIUM TERM) is a fair price. The long term price shouldn't be below RM3. The only thing going on currently is the nonstop hype and @LubeTrader's "hidden entity" conspiracy theories.. lol

Post a Comment