Posted by RayLee > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

It has maintained a “buy” call on the group with a target price of 71 sen per share from HLIBB

Posted by Justaboylearning > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Raylee

Armada Sterling V is expected to see first oil next week though the acceptance test certificate is still ongoing with each test requiring 3-4 days.On its financing, the FPSO has successfully achieved financial close and has fully drawn down USD948m project financing facility to repay its USD930m bridging loan facility.


Means sell since no oil to be seen

Posted by rohank71 > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Technically, BA looks really bad as it hit 50 sen today. Anyone can advise where the next technical support is.. or still maintain 50.5 sen as a good support base. Some tell me support 48 sen and resistance at 54 sen. 50.5 sen is the base now.

Posted by EVEBITDA > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Looking at BAs interest cost in Q3 2023 of RM107M on debts of 4.5B, looks like BAs average cost of debt is abt 10% pa. This is based on companys analyst brief deck on their website. With Brent droping lower it adds to the problem. CGS has put a fair value of 40 sen if there is no extension of firm contract and 84 sen if 100% of extension is achieved with a discount rate/ factor of 13%. With borrowing cost at 10% a fair Discount factor should be 15 to 18%. Basically would u want to lend BA @ 10% or be a shareholder at 13%. I dont mind being a shareholder at 15 to 18% returns. We may see a correction but I am fairly bullish for it to hit 70 sen in 24 months provided karken, ASV1, ASV2, and Olombendo performs (these are the main drivers, rest is not important). TGT1, extension willmadd to the valuation. Enjoy the journey with BA and to share I will buy more if BA drops. I love free cash flows and not profits but mgmt MUST deliver.

In 24 mths if BA can deliver and with Akai comming on stream, we may see 1.00, provided Brent stays at 80 but if BA fails, its UGLY. Again, lets "enjoy" the ride and journey with BA. High risk, high rewards. Buy within ur means or sell if you are over exposed.

Posted by RISK8888 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

wow, profitable QR but price fall like no support at all??? what is going on??? kraken failure 2.0???

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/oilandnaturalgascorporation_ongc-oil-ongcjeetegatohjeetegaindia-activity-7137463703498596352-aHSb?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/oilandnaturalgascorporation_ongc-oil-ongcjeetegatohjeetegaindia-activity-7137463703498596352-aHSb?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Here state oil production will state this month posted 2 days ago only why so many noise here

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

I guess Lee is a wise man, he knows all friends, even a very close friend cannot always be trusted. Very unlikely Lee has bought Armada at 515 (0.515.)


Mikecyc

41,458 posts

Posted by Mikecyc > 9 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Haha recalled u said 5.15 to sslleee ..

Then sslleee asked U , yr really:

1/12/2023 RM 0.515


Posted by i3lurker > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse
Armada 
not cheap but ok lah

Posted by Mikecyc > 3 days ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by ITreeinvestor > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

#ONGC is eyeing commencement of #Oil production from its flagship deepwater project KG-98/2 Development Project in December 2023.

Gas production from Project has already commenced in March 2020 with plan of further ramping up by May 2024.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/oilandnaturalgascorporation_ongc-oil-ongcjeetegatohjeetegaindia-activity-7137463703498596352-aHSb

Posted by ITreeinvestor > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Latest update from ONGC, oil production will be commence in Dec 2023.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

You must understand, this is another good part of i3 forum. If any present comment contradict a past comment, you can quickly delete a past comment as fast as you can to avoid being rediculed after that.

Mikecyc

41,460 posts

Posted by Mikecyc > 24 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Haha Lirker u own deleted own posts so fast ke ….

Posted by KimSua > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Can top up. Heavily shorted should stabilise this week

Posted by GoldenShares > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

wow below 0.50

Posted by TimCoke > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

495 seems like a good buy today

Posted by Sslee > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

I am back to grab some for my free bintang beer and lobster. Thank you very much to my favorite trading stock Armada.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Bought at 515. Wish you good luck.


Sslee

3,274 posts

Posted by Sslee > 7 minutes ago | Report Abuse

I am back to grab some for my free bintang beer and lobster. Thank you very much to my favorite trading stock Armada.


i3lurker

13,056 posts

Posted by i3lurker > 18 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Haha

no worries
sslee already made many hundred thousands RM based on my Armada buy calls in prior years.

now temporary lose a little bit just to trap Satanic Accuser MikeCheatYouCrazy is totally worth it. 🤣 👍

Posted by StingRay > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Still not time to touch O&G counter lah. I very much earlier already warned Ular not to even peek at O&G counter last couple of months loh. 🤣

Posted by Ninja _07 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Thank you @Gabriel Khoo for the information

Posted by Ninja _07 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

I am very sure that i3lurker lost his money in this counter 😂😂😂

Posted by Sslee > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

i3lurker,
You forget to mention while I am happily enjoy my free bintang beer and lobster on jaks trading gain, Mike-tikus stole from me again and trapped himself in Jaks for donkey months. FORCED to promote Jaks day and night 24/7/365 non stop to no avail.

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 7, 2023 9:34 AM | Report Abuse
Satanic Accuser MikeCheatYouCrazy stole from sslee ...

buy HRC
buy Petron

so I just rinse and repeat and FORCED Satanic Accuser MikeCheatYouCrazy to buy Armada 🤣

Posted by armadatuah2017 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

unfortunately what i3lurker said is true...oil market sentiment is poor right now and it is near holidays... just chill during downtrend.....2 weeks to go before Christmas...

Posted by Mikecyc > 3 days ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

As for Lee, Lee was induced to buy at 515 for bintang beer and lobster. 🤣

Posted by i3lurker > 18 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Haha

no worries
sslee already made many hundred thousands RM based on my Armada buy calls in prior years.

now temporary lose a little bit just to trap Satanic Accuser MikeCheatYouCrazy is totally worth it. 🤣 👍

Posted by Mikecyc > 3 days ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ninja _07 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Well, my technical chart analysis already predicted 0.49 as the long entry back in September 2023. So there is nothing to shout or complain now. From here on the target price is as follows:

TP1 - 0.77
TP2 - 0.90
TP 3 -1.04

So, like KimSua said .. its heavily shorted! And like TimCoke said .. 0.495 is a good buy now.

Most importantly, like EVEBITDA said .. "Again, lets "enjoy" the ride and journey with BA. High risk, high rewards. Buy within ur means or sell if you are over exposed" 😃

Posted by MM78 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

How bad can the impact of Sterling V first oil delay versus Kraken shut down before? Are the investors including some here overreacting to this Sterling V first oil delay further preceded by many delays already? Is the Armada's 30 % share of this FPSO so critical that it may disrupt the free cash flow that Armada is generating now from overall operations? I look forward to some wisdom sharing from our wise investors here. Thanks

Posted by TimCoke > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Honestly, it is very minimum. But still the price going down, obviosuly some parties purposely intentionally want this happen before next drama ^^

Posted by Mabel > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Mabel waiting to re-enter at 48.5 sen and 48 sen..

Meow

Posted by MM78 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

I am also waiting for 48 sens to top up.

Posted by Mabel > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Nice MM78 and Felix..Will cum to 45 sen once Uncles and Aunties sell at 48.5 and 48 sen..

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by MM78 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

@ TimCoke, yes I also suspect the market is overreacting and some big players are pressing the price down to accumulate. Good for investors who dare to go against the market sentiments , it seems.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Wah! You all run road already, Lee cham loh.


Sslee

3,275 posts

Posted by Sslee > 4 hours ago | Report Abuse

I am back to grab some for my free bintang beer and lobster. Thank you very much to my favorite trading stock Armada.

Posted by armadatuah2017 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

time to regain position... we will kill the short seller now.

Posted by Ninja _07 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

But @Mabel... Why do you want to enter at 0.48 when you predict it will be down to 0.45? Don't make any sense..

Posted by rohank71 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Mable will be averaging down. U always can't buy the cheapest... what if bounce from 47.5?

Posted by Dehcomic01 > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

“It’s built into the system that stocks get mispriced,” Warren Buffett said at the 2012 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting.

There are several reasons why mispricing can occur from market inefficiencies to behavioural factors. I don’t really try to analyse the reasons for the mispricing, but rather look for opportunities for this.

I think Armada is a potential mispricing. https://i.postimg.cc/6pdGnTsq/Armada.png

Armada ROE had been trailing those of my 2 reference Bursa energy services companies – Dayang and Deleum for many years since 2012. But over the past 2 years, Armada ROE had overtaken those of Dayang and Deleum https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quk378SFfCg

At the same time when you look at the trends of the ROE and market price for Armada, you can see that while the ROE has shown improvements over the past 4 years, there has hardly been any improvement in the market price.

I would consider this a mispricing opportunity that warrants a deeper look.

Posted by KimSua > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Don't over analyst, just buy , BA business is still solid. Shorts at play for big funds. Just observe the net short trend. Is stabilising and they will need to cover their shortd soon

Posted by Mabel > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Ninja _07 But @Mabel... Why do you want to enter at 0.48 when you predict it will be down to 0.45? Don't make any sense..
07/12/2023 4:41 PM

rohank71 Mable will be averaging down. U always can't buy the cheapest... what if bounce from 47.5?
07/12/2023 4:58 PM

Meow as rohank71 said..

Posted by Ninja _07 > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

@KimSua .. well said 👌🏻

Posted by nikicheong > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

@Dehcomic01

Sometimes things are not as they seem. As things stand, Bumi Armada's ROE and EPS is "high" but if you look into the future based on their firm contracts, this is only temporary. From Y2025 onwards, the ROE will start falling as the TGT, Sterling II and Kraken FPSO contracts expire. The Kraken contract is a key turning point as even if it is extended into the option period, it will be at a significantly lower day rate (though partially mitigated by lower borrowing/depreciation expenses as well).

And Bumi Armada's ROE and EPS will fall off a cliff in 2030 when the Olombendo FPSO firm contract period ends (even if it is extended into the option period, the profitability will be significantly lower).

2 to 3 years ago, when the share price was under 30 sen and the ROE/EPS started recovering strongly, Bumi Armada was a great buy. The Kraken turning point in Y2025 still seemed far away, there seemed to be time to lock-in a large scale FPSO contract in the mean time to replenish the orderbook.

Yet the years have passed and Bumi Armada has pretty much exited the profitable FPSO business due to reputational and skillset issues. Now they have turned the focus to the green space (FSRU, FLNG, FSCIU) but there's nothing to show and the profitability will unlikely be as good as FPSOs.

Add to that, the delays with Armada Sterling V, the one small glimmer of growth. And we have a dud.

Mind you, Bumi Armada is still a decent buy at 50 sen. Heck I'm holding more than half a million shares and haven't sold (in fact I added during the Kraken fiasco). But it's not hard to see why Bumi Armada's valuation is undemanding in the market.

As far as hidden value goes, Bumi Armada doesn't have much of it any longer. So the only thing any of us can do, is hope that they win new contracts (and win them soon!) and their current contracts see lengthy extensions.

TLDR: Ignore the high ROE, low P/B and low P/E ratios. They don't give the full picture, and if you buy into Bumi Armada right now just based on that premise, things may not go so well.

Posted by boonwei98 > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Why not just switch not Yinson instead?

Posted by nikicheong > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Yinson is not necessarily a better buy. For starters, it is not "cheap" as there is a lot of expectations baked into the share price already (quite the opposite as Bumi Armada). And there is considerable project execution risk as they are concurrently working on 3-4 FPSOs.

While Yinson may yet turn out to be a decent investment, the "easy money" has been made.

Posted by i3lurker > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

looks like some unjust people will be making profits too.

For non-muslims only.

Matthew 5:45
For He maketh His sun to rise on the evil and on the good, and sendeth rain on the just and on the unjust.

Posted by nikicheong > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

According to my sources, the Dec 2023 first oil date as stated in ONGC LinkedIn is very tight, internally they are looking at mid Jan 2024 to receive the first oil.

I think the minister's statement in Indian Parliament has caused some confusion, not sure why he said proeuction to commence in May 2024.

Posted by vespa > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Trust Indian Parliamentarians. They shoud do what China does; firing squad or he has no faith in ONGC from past experience then the later should be flayed. All this at taxpayers' expense, lousy bunch

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Nik the minister may refer to the gas production in 2nd stages in May 2024

Posted by nikicheong > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

"In Cluster-II, commercial production from one gas field has already commenced from March 2020 and commercial production of crude oil is scheduled for May 2024In Cluster-II, commercial production from one gas field has already commenced from March 2020 and commercial production of crude oil is scheduled for May 2024. The project is likely to achieve full completion by 2024."

Source: https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/ongc-to-start-commercial-oil-production-from-kg-block-in-may-2024-minister/105726514#:~:text=3%20min%20read-,ONGC%20to%20start%20commercial%20oil%20production%20from%20KG%20block%20in,have%20been%20clubbed%20into%20clusters.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

ITreeinvestor

#ONGC is eyeing commencement of #Oil production from its flagship deepwater project KG-98/2 Development Project in December 2023.

Gas production from Project has already commenced in March 2020 with plan of further ramping up by May 2024.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/oilandnaturalgascorporation_ongc-oil-ongcjeetegatohjeetegaindia-activity-7137463703498596352-aHSb