BUMI ARMADA BERHAD

KLSE (MYR): ARMADA (5210)

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Last Price

0.585

Today's Change

+0.005 (0.86%)

Day's Change

0.575 - 0.585

Trading Volume

21,283,800


46 people like this.

71,168 comment(s). Last comment by Robert Waters 27 minutes ago

Sslee

4,091 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

i3lurker,
You forget to mention while I am happily enjoy my free bintang beer and lobster on jaks trading gain, Mike-tikus stole from me again and trapped himself in Jaks for donkey months. FORCED to promote Jaks day and night 24/7/365 non stop to no avail.

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 7, 2023 9:34 AM | Report Abuse
Satanic Accuser MikeCheatYouCrazy stole from sslee ...

buy HRC
buy Petron

so I just rinse and repeat and FORCED Satanic Accuser MikeCheatYouCrazy to buy Armada 🤣

Posted by armadatuah2017 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

unfortunately what i3lurker said is true...oil market sentiment is poor right now and it is near holidays... just chill during downtrend.....2 weeks to go before Christmas...

Mikecyc

43,058 posts

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

As for Lee, Lee was induced to buy at 515 for bintang beer and lobster. 🤣

Posted by i3lurker > 18 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Haha

no worries
sslee already made many hundred thousands RM based on my Armada buy calls in prior years.

now temporary lose a little bit just to trap Satanic Accuser MikeCheatYouCrazy is totally worth it. 🤣 👍

Mikecyc

43,058 posts

Posted by Mikecyc > 2 months ago |

Post removed.Why?

Ninja _07

444 posts

Posted by Ninja _07 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Well, my technical chart analysis already predicted 0.49 as the long entry back in September 2023. So there is nothing to shout or complain now. From here on the target price is as follows:

TP1 - 0.77
TP2 - 0.90
TP 3 -1.04

So, like KimSua said .. its heavily shorted! And like TimCoke said .. 0.495 is a good buy now.

Most importantly, like EVEBITDA said .. "Again, lets "enjoy" the ride and journey with BA. High risk, high rewards. Buy within ur means or sell if you are over exposed" 😃

MM78

591 posts

Posted by MM78 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

How bad can the impact of Sterling V first oil delay versus Kraken shut down before? Are the investors including some here overreacting to this Sterling V first oil delay further preceded by many delays already? Is the Armada's 30 % share of this FPSO so critical that it may disrupt the free cash flow that Armada is generating now from overall operations? I look forward to some wisdom sharing from our wise investors here. Thanks

TimCoke

117 posts

Posted by TimCoke > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Honestly, it is very minimum. But still the price going down, obviosuly some parties purposely intentionally want this happen before next drama ^^

Mabel

22,915 posts

Posted by Mabel > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Mabel waiting to re-enter at 48.5 sen and 48 sen..

Meow

MM78

591 posts

Posted by MM78 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

I am also waiting for 48 sens to top up.

Mabel

22,915 posts

Posted by Mabel > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Nice MM78 and Felix..Will cum to 45 sen once Uncles and Aunties sell at 48.5 and 48 sen..

Meow Meow Meow

MM78

591 posts

Posted by MM78 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@ TimCoke, yes I also suspect the market is overreacting and some big players are pressing the price down to accumulate. Good for investors who dare to go against the market sentiments , it seems.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Wah! You all run road already, Lee cham loh.


Sslee

3,275 posts

Posted by Sslee > 4 hours ago | Report Abuse

I am back to grab some for my free bintang beer and lobster. Thank you very much to my favorite trading stock Armada.

Posted by armadatuah2017 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

time to regain position... we will kill the short seller now.

Ninja _07

444 posts

Posted by Ninja _07 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

But @Mabel... Why do you want to enter at 0.48 when you predict it will be down to 0.45? Don't make any sense..

rohank71

731 posts

Posted by rohank71 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Mable will be averaging down. U always can't buy the cheapest... what if bounce from 47.5?

Dehcomic01

286 posts

Posted by Dehcomic01 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

“It’s built into the system that stocks get mispriced,” Warren Buffett said at the 2012 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting.

There are several reasons why mispricing can occur from market inefficiencies to behavioural factors. I don’t really try to analyse the reasons for the mispricing, but rather look for opportunities for this.

I think Armada is a potential mispricing. https://i.postimg.cc/6pdGnTsq/Armada.png

Armada ROE had been trailing those of my 2 reference Bursa energy services companies – Dayang and Deleum for many years since 2012. But over the past 2 years, Armada ROE had overtaken those of Dayang and Deleum https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quk378SFfCg

At the same time when you look at the trends of the ROE and market price for Armada, you can see that while the ROE has shown improvements over the past 4 years, there has hardly been any improvement in the market price.

I would consider this a mispricing opportunity that warrants a deeper look.

KimSua

385 posts

Posted by KimSua > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Don't over analyst, just buy , BA business is still solid. Shorts at play for big funds. Just observe the net short trend. Is stabilising and they will need to cover their shortd soon

Mabel

22,915 posts

Posted by Mabel > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Ninja _07 But @Mabel... Why do you want to enter at 0.48 when you predict it will be down to 0.45? Don't make any sense..
07/12/2023 4:41 PM

rohank71 Mable will be averaging down. U always can't buy the cheapest... what if bounce from 47.5?
07/12/2023 4:58 PM

Meow as rohank71 said..

Ninja _07

444 posts

Posted by Ninja _07 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@KimSua .. well said 👌🏻

nikicheong

2,250 posts

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@Dehcomic01

Sometimes things are not as they seem. As things stand, Bumi Armada's ROE and EPS is "high" but if you look into the future based on their firm contracts, this is only temporary. From Y2025 onwards, the ROE will start falling as the TGT, Sterling II and Kraken FPSO contracts expire. The Kraken contract is a key turning point as even if it is extended into the option period, it will be at a significantly lower day rate (though partially mitigated by lower borrowing/depreciation expenses as well).

And Bumi Armada's ROE and EPS will fall off a cliff in 2030 when the Olombendo FPSO firm contract period ends (even if it is extended into the option period, the profitability will be significantly lower).

2 to 3 years ago, when the share price was under 30 sen and the ROE/EPS started recovering strongly, Bumi Armada was a great buy. The Kraken turning point in Y2025 still seemed far away, there seemed to be time to lock-in a large scale FPSO contract in the mean time to replenish the orderbook.

Yet the years have passed and Bumi Armada has pretty much exited the profitable FPSO business due to reputational and skillset issues. Now they have turned the focus to the green space (FSRU, FLNG, FSCIU) but there's nothing to show and the profitability will unlikely be as good as FPSOs.

Add to that, the delays with Armada Sterling V, the one small glimmer of growth. And we have a dud.

Mind you, Bumi Armada is still a decent buy at 50 sen. Heck I'm holding more than half a million shares and haven't sold (in fact I added during the Kraken fiasco). But it's not hard to see why Bumi Armada's valuation is undemanding in the market.

As far as hidden value goes, Bumi Armada doesn't have much of it any longer. So the only thing any of us can do, is hope that they win new contracts (and win them soon!) and their current contracts see lengthy extensions.

TLDR: Ignore the high ROE, low P/B and low P/E ratios. They don't give the full picture, and if you buy into Bumi Armada right now just based on that premise, things may not go so well.

boonwei98

83 posts

Posted by boonwei98 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Why not just switch not Yinson instead?

nikicheong

2,250 posts

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Yinson is not necessarily a better buy. For starters, it is not "cheap" as there is a lot of expectations baked into the share price already (quite the opposite as Bumi Armada). And there is considerable project execution risk as they are concurrently working on 3-4 FPSOs.

While Yinson may yet turn out to be a decent investment, the "easy money" has been made.

nikicheong

2,250 posts

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

According to my sources, the Dec 2023 first oil date as stated in ONGC LinkedIn is very tight, internally they are looking at mid Jan 2024 to receive the first oil.

I think the minister's statement in Indian Parliament has caused some confusion, not sure why he said proeuction to commence in May 2024.

vespa

785 posts

Posted by vespa > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Trust Indian Parliamentarians. They shoud do what China does; firing squad or he has no faith in ONGC from past experience then the later should be flayed. All this at taxpayers' expense, lousy bunch

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Nik the minister may refer to the gas production in 2nd stages in May 2024

nikicheong

2,250 posts

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

"In Cluster-II, commercial production from one gas field has already commenced from March 2020 and commercial production of crude oil is scheduled for May 2024In Cluster-II, commercial production from one gas field has already commenced from March 2020 and commercial production of crude oil is scheduled for May 2024. The project is likely to achieve full completion by 2024."

Source: https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/ongc-to-start-commercial-oil-production-from-kg-block-in-may-2024-minister/105726514#:~:text=3%20min%20read-,ONGC%20to%20start%20commercial%20oil%20production%20from%20KG%20block%20in,have%20been%20clubbed%20into%20clusters.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

ITreeinvestor

#ONGC is eyeing commencement of #Oil production from its flagship deepwater project KG-98/2 Development Project in December 2023.

Gas production from Project has already commenced in March 2020 with plan of further ramping up by May 2024.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/oilandnaturalgascorporation_ongc-oil-ongcjeetegatohjeetegaindia-activity-7137463703498596352-aHSb

nikicheong

2,250 posts

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

What do you mean? I've never received any warning of any sort for cancelling unfulfilled orders.

rohank71

731 posts

Posted by rohank71 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

i3lurker buys in RM100s of millions per day. His trade can move not only the stock but also the index. Pls show some respect to i3luker. We just ikan bilis here.

Posted by Justaboylearning > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

waiting for my bonus to put money into armada to DCA!

Ninja _07

444 posts

Posted by Ninja _07 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Oil price drops pulak 😅

TimCoke

117 posts

Posted by TimCoke > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

495 still a good buy for me

vespa

785 posts

Posted by vespa > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Traders have had a field few months with Armada

Posted by ITreeinvestor > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Fresh FPSO front-runner emerges for challenging TotalEnergies Angola project

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/fresh-fpso-front-runner-emerges-for-challenging-totalenergies-angola-project/2-1-1566991

rohank71

731 posts

Posted by rohank71 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Oil going lower, dragging BA lower. Instead of seeing BA price, better see Oil price. I don't think this fall is operation driven, i.e., ASV. More like BA prices falls = Oil price fall.

RayLee

133 posts

Posted by RayLee > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Oil market is controlled by US now ... see when they are going to release some good news and make their oil companies make big bucks

Sslee

4,091 posts

Posted by Sslee > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Armada at RM 0.51
Price/NAPS is 0.51
Annualized PE based on last two quarters EPS is 5.09
Will still perform well for next 6 months ROI.

rohank71

731 posts

Posted by rohank71 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Best to value Armada on DCF valuation as it's not an infinite life bz. Each of its 4 FPSO has its own life... all depends if something new happens. If nothing new, they just return the net cash balance to shareholders. (Potential 1.50 to 2.50 over next 4 to 10 yrs). CGS Analyst report has the numbers. AK already old better let current contracts expire and close shop. All JVs sell to Indian Partners.

Akai, is a surprise.. but let's see if there will be any development in the near term.

RayLee

133 posts

Posted by RayLee > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Bhd has maintained its "overweight" call on the oil and gas (O&G) sector, as the research firm anticipates that oil price will persist within the range of US$85-US$80 per barrel in 2024.
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/pricetarget/research/69947

nikicheong

2,250 posts

Posted by nikicheong > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

From checks with my sources, Armada Sterling V is being repaired. One faulty pump is being replaced while another will arrive by the end of this week.

Tentatively, they're looking at attempting first oil in the 2nd week of January 2024.

Take everything with a large pinch of salt (yet keep your fingers crossed at the same time) as the project has been beset with never ending delays.

RISK8888

2,226 posts

Posted by RISK8888 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Wow good news! Buy now at low price sell when first oil confirm!

Macgyver11

2,426 posts

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Long-time hedge fund manager, Doug Kass give bold oil price prediction for year 2024. Doug Kass got 40 years experience in this field and former research Director for Leon Cooperman's omega advisors.....

Kass's outlook suggests that the U.S. will experience sluggish growth rather than a recession. If so, oil demand will stabilize, making the market more vulnerable to geopolitical uncertainty, including Presidential election-year saber-rattling by North Korea, China, and the Middle East.

"With Russia and Saudi Arabia conspiring on production cuts, the price of oil exceeds $110/barrel, and the price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. approaches $6," warns Kass.

A possible oil price increase to $110 or more wouldn't be good news for consumers' wallets, but oil companies would welcome it.

In 2023, oil exploration and production companies' financial results were hampered by lower prices and tough year-over-year comparisons to 2022, when prices and profitability were high. If Kass is correct, the opposite could be true in 2024. A resurgence in prices and easier 2023 comparisons could make oil stocks big winners next year.

Posted by Justaboylearning > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

So much resistance at 0.52

RayLee

133 posts

Posted by RayLee > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Is it possible for oil price to go up to $110/barrel again...? Personally, I think it's very hard

Macgyver11

2,426 posts

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

I think possibility is there...for 100pb

Macgyver11

2,426 posts

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Something interesting caught my eye when I read last paragraph of this news. Saudi and Russia want Joe Biden out in next presidential election. Donald Trump is in favourable now.

"I think OPEC members like Saudi Arabia and allies like Russia would prefer to see Donald Trump reelected, and they may therefore try to drive prices up ahead of the election. It will be harder for President Biden to win reelection if gasoline prices are skyrocketing ahead of the election, so this will be something to watch in 2024".

We might see higher crude oil price in 2024. Higher CO price mean higher DC rate. Higher DC rate good for O&G.

stainlyho37

2,240 posts

Posted by stainlyho37 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

watch out Armada....!!

stainlyho37

2,240 posts

Posted by stainlyho37 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

extreme winter for the past week...again oil surge..!!!??

myongcc5

708 posts

Posted by myongcc5 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Merry Christmas. God bless all of you.

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