Malaysia chicken price might be good. But don't forget LHI also has business in Vietnam, Indonesia. Is the chicken price in other country is good? Dont expect too much for the coming quaterly results. You might end up dissapointed.
Most of the Poultry & egg counters made hefty profits in the 1st quarter, but LHI was the exception, with Q1 net profit dropping to RM22m from RM90m Q4 last year “EBITDA decreased by 83.0%. The decrease was mainly due to margin compression stemming from the elevated input costs of feed as well as low average selling price of DOC in Indonesia” True, Indonesia was having a chicken glut in Q1 and they were culling chicken! It made no sense especially to the small farmers to rear poultry and then sell below their cost. Supply and demand I believe have played out in Indonesia. Check out Indonesia Average Wholesale price, Chicken Meat https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indonesia/average-wholesale-price-by-regions-chicken-meat/average-wholesale-price-chicken-meat-bali-denpasar-municipality The price has shot back up since around May 1st …..”average selling prices (ASP) in Indonesia have surged significantly over the past month on the back of reduced supply as well as increased demand during the Ramadhan festivity” …. AmInvest Note that Indonesia is most important market because it contributes to 35% of LHI total revenue (followed by M’sia, Vietnam, S’pore and Philippines.) I hope to see LHI results improving in Q2.
The profitability of the poultry business depends very much on the cost of chicken feed which in turns depend on the price of wheat and corn. Checking wheat futures, it is around 690 now compared to 1100 in early 2022. (There is a slight blip upwards since the dam in Ukraine broke.) Corn is around 640 compared to 820 around early last year. Of note is that LHI is not a pure play chicken business. It feedmill business is huge, with revenue of 993m, only slightly lower than its livestock/poultry business of 1199m. EDITDA for feedmill was RM149m, that is where its main profit come from in Q1.
So why is LHI price so low from its IPO price of RM1.10 Someone must have been selling, but who? Checking the 30 largest shareholder (as of 31 Mar 2023) … Emerging Glory with 52% belonging to the Lau family Datuk Lau recently bought 20m and 30m on 12 Jun 2023, so you can rule out the Lau family selling. Maybank Sec for Clarinden Investment is the 2nd largest shareholder at 8.5% (313m shares) Clarinden/Affinty/Concordant (S’pore based) last sold 2.3m shares back in 17 Mar 2022. Clarinden/Affinty/Concordant with well over 5% cannot quietly sell because they will have to report. (Btw, Affinity was Emerging Glory’s partner that took Leong Hup Hlg & Emivest private in 2014)
More worrying are those with less than 5% because they can dispose quietly without informing bursa. Amanah Saham Bumiputra with 4.9% had held steady since 2019 EPF has 2.8% or 102m shares (on 31 Mar 2023) compared to 3.2% or 116m shares (on 31 Mar 2022) Hence I figure out the EPF sold 14m shares the past year!!!!! [Just like they have been selling YTL / YTLPower – quite mind boggling people!] Continue my research later – mid-night now – good-nite!
Patron, how to check the price for broiler and eggs?
By the way, I have been thinking of building a few sheds to farm chicken, i think it has to take one year or so before I can sell any chicken. I noticed the market price is very attractive, the only challenge seems to be stable supply of DOCs.
is pointless if the share price is not moving.. from IPO price RM 1.10 drop to RM0.50 cents.. Lots of layman hard earned money is cheated by this company. Muar people say this is a conman company. Maybe is true.. Lol..
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....