JPMorgan’s head of EMEA energy equity research, Christyan Malek, warned markets on Friday that the recent Brent price surge could continue upwards to $150 per barrel by 2026, according to a new research report. Several catalysts went into the $150 price warning, including capacity shocks, an energy supercycle—and of course, efforts to push the world further away from fossil fuels. Most recently, crude oil prices have surged on the back of OPEC+ production cuts, mostly led by Saudi Arabia who almost singlehanded took 1 million bpd out of the market, followed by a fuel export ban from Russia. Increased crude demand paired up with the supply restrictions, boosting crude oil prices and contributing to rising consumer prices.
Brent prices were trading around $93.55 on Friday afternoon, but Malek expects Brent prices between $90 and $110 next year, and even higher in 2025. “Put your seatbelts on. It’s going to be a very volatile supercycle,” Malek told Bloomberg on Friday, as the analyst warned about OPEC’s production cuts and a lack of investment in new oil production. JPMorgan said in February this year that Oil prices were unlikely to reach $100 per barrel this year unless there was some major geopolitical event that rattled markets, warning that OPEC+ could add in as much as 400,000 bpd to global supplies, with Russia’s oil exports potentially recovering by the middle of this year. At the time, JPMorgan was estimating 770,000 bpd in demand growth from China—less than what the IEA and OPEC were estimating. JPMorgan now sees the global supply and demand imbalance at 1.1 million bpd in 2025, but growing to a 7.1 million bpd deficit in 2030 as robust demand continues to butt up against limited supply. By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
HOUSTON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Oil prices surged 3% on Wednesday to the highest settlement in 2023, after a steep drop in U.S. crude stocks compounded worries of tight global supplies. Brent crude futures closed up $2.59, or 2.8%, at $96.55. It breached $97 a barrel during the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) climbed $3.29, or 3.6%, to $93.68. The session high was over $94. U.S. crude stocks fell by 2.2 million barrels last week to 416.3 million barrels, government data showed, far exceeding the 320,000-barrel drop analysts expected in a Reuters poll.
Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub, delivery point for U.S. crude futures, fell by 943,000 barrels in the week to just under 22 million barrels, the lowest since July 2022, data showed. "The market is being led up by storage numbers as we are getting to the minimum operational inventories at Cushing," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Stockpiles at Cushing have been falling closer to historic low levels due to strong refining and export demand, prompting concerns about quality of the remaining oil at the hub and whether it will fall below minimum operating levels.
Prices fell last week but were rallying again as markets worried about tight supplies heading into winter, following production cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day to the end of the year by Saudi Arabia and Russia of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies known as OPEC+. "Until a decision to raise production is made, the global energy market will remain tight," Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said.
Analysts have raised their forecasts for oil prices, as they try to understand Saudi Arabia’s intentions with recent production cuts.
Many energy analysts think that oil prices will soon rise above $100 a barrel for the first time in more than a year, since the turmoil that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, has gained about 30 percent since the start of July, trading at about $96.50 a barrel on Wednesday. “I think prices are starting to melt up,” said Robert McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, a research firm.
Driving the rise, analysts say, is the deep reduction in oil output orchestrated by Saudi Arabia over the last year. The kingdom’s ability and willingness to add and subtract supplies gives it substantial sway over the market for this crucial commodity. Climbing oil prices increase energy costs for consumers and businesses, weighing on the global economy. In the United States, the price of crude oil accounts for about half the price of gasoline. Rising pump prices are squeezing motorists, complicating the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation and stoking concerns over the Biden administration’s economic stewardship…..
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