BAT (4162): Financial Annual Reports

Today 9.23. Classic bear drop like falling knife. I tried to warn all you longs on weekend. I then sold on Monday my longs at 9.65. I explained very patiently for those willing to listen. This is still a falling knife.

Who is selling? For this volume, it is clearly institutional.

Why are they selling? Looks to me more and more institutions are realizing that this is a sad long term bear case.

As Engineering puts it - this is probably one of the strongest long term bear case in casino de bursa.

What is it worth long term? Assuming very successful Vuse and zero cigarettes then it is not worth even 70 Sen.

That’s how strong the bear case is.

There is simply nothing to induce institutionals now, after they de-risk to come back in.

Longs have made a mistake. Still not too late to cash out at 9.2.

Give 2 years or less and you will see RM7.

2 days ago

The only risk to my prediction of RM7 in less than 2 years is:
1. BAT Management and Board slash expenses by 20%.
2. BAT increases marketing budget to protect their declining cigarette customer segment.
3. BAT accepts slow death because it cannot be market leader in Vuse to compete with hundreds of China producers. There is no real premium segment in Vaping. Google “ best vape in Malaysia” and Vuse doesn’t even feature. BAT is simply too late in the vaping space and it will never have the same monopoly or leadership like it has in the cigarette market.

2 days ago

Analysts will be watching BAT’s expenses in the coming QR like a hawk. Particularly the real cost of selling Vuse vs Vuse real revenues and total expenses. After subtracting long term expenses and allocating excess expenses to Vuse, if analyst discover that Vuse real margin is lower, this stock will crash.

2 days ago

BAT in the coming QR will be trying all accounting tricks to show high Vuse margins. It won’t work because market is always smarter than any one accountant.

2 days ago

lee901

Sunset business, still got hope?

2 days ago

No.........(except on paper by doing creative accounting.....hehe)

2 days ago

troy88

Will probably stay close to RM9 until the QR release. If QR disappoint again then confirm gg

2 days ago

BradonOoi

Or RM9.22 is its bottom price ..

2 days ago

troy88

this govt doesn't give a damn about tobacco industry and are happy to let it rot away..

2 days ago

Based on technical analysis of BAT stock price demise yesterday, rm8.63 has appeared as stronk support.
I’m surprised that there was virtually no bounce from rm9.26 touted by me as a stronk support previously.

1 day ago

BAT made a new all time low today at 9.22 and rebounded. It "looks" like a "bear trap", but I am not convinced. As of today, bulls tries to regain control and the real test is Monday. I think next week is a good chance for those who are trapped on the long side to sell on strength.

1 day ago

@MOBA, the key thing about technical analysis is to first figure out what is the TREND, before thinking about other details like resistance, support, etc. In BAT's case, the TREND is very obvious and the downward trend is supported by terrible and ugly fundamentals. Sure, price will go down, move up, etc. but the clear downtrend is unmistakeable if you look at charts longer than say 4 years. Since 2020, it has been trading on a sideways range, typical of long term consolidation, but today's price action to make a new all time low of 9.22 is not convincing. Nevertheless bulls have been defending strongly and so, it won't be so easy to break below 9.22 yet as the momentum next week is an attempt by bulls to push prices back up again to support.

If BAT makes a new low lower than 9.22 in the coming weeks, then, bulls will have lost and we will see even lower prices.

IMHO, next week or two may be the final chance for those who are long to exit their longs.

The longer longs hold on to their position, the greater the odds of them losing. Hold for 2 years and don't be surprised to see RM7.

1 day ago

FWIW, without BAT, today, my portfolio made all time high again. It has made all time highs 3 times this week. One does not need BAT to win this game. There are so many other sound fundamental stocks with good technicals. Or buy good quality REITS at lower prices if one doesn't know technical analysis. REITS returns should match or beat EPF over 5-10 year time-frames.

1 day ago

@Bradon, 9.22 is clearly the low today. Next week, 60/40 bias towards higher prices. The question mark is how long can bull sustain (a few days? 1 week? 2 weeks? 4 weeks to end Oct on next QR?) and how high can it get to (RM9.9?). I expect a lot of sellers near RM10. So, next week, next 2 weeks, next 4 weeks is critical. If prices starts to rise in the 4 weeks leading to QR release, majority chance the QR will disappoint. Punters are betting QR is good, hoping for a good Vuse results, but odds are not good here to bet on the long side.

I suspect, this next 1, 2, 4 weeks may provide opportunities for longs to exit on short term strength. I suspect 70/30 odds that RM10 resistance will hold, because many longs who averaged down below RM10 will try to exit near there to try to make a small profit. Those who are not greedy have 50/50 chance of making a tiny profit. Those who are greedy and tries to sell above RM10 like RM11 is banking on low odds of winning.

1 day ago

For this week, for those who are long, I strongly advise to put a Stop Loss at below 9.2. Today is a bullish engulfing pattern signaling a potential trend reversal. So, by right, price should rise next week, if today's bullish engulfing follows through. So, next week, we don't expect 9.2 if follow technical analysis. However, If next week touches 9.2, this stock is completely dead. Hence, by right, next week, should be low odds of seeing 9.2 and when there's a low odd event happening, you should have a stop loss there because it should be low odds to see the stop loss gets executed. Trade dynamically, because market is not static by dynamic. The stop loss after next week will be different and gets updated later.

1 day ago

https://punkjuicevapestore.co/collections/top-malaysian-brands

Where is Vuse?

1 day ago

Today is Bullish Engulfing candlestick, where today's close (9.5) is higher than yesterday's high (9.45).
Bulls should feel a sigh of relief.
However, if (low odds) Monday shows a Bearish Engulfing candlestick (e.g. if Monday's close is below 9.22), I think you will be glad to have your Stop Loss at 9.2 gets hit.
If Monday do a Bearish Engulfing, we could be looking at a serious downtrend continuation.

Nevertheless, I think less than 20% chance Monday will show a Bearish Engulfing. Next week majority odds will rise / flat.

1 day ago

ongkkh

DividenGuy67, may i know what your holding at this moment? Understand you hold 40 counters, would like to study it. Thank you.

1 day ago

My opinion is first they creat fear then you panic sell after continue 10 days fall and they collected cheap, second they push up and retailer sell take profit and they continue collected cheap thirdly they continue push higher and you Miss the boat

1 day ago

Yup.....easy profit$ when buy real cheap....hehe

Be greedy when others are fearful, right?

1 day ago

History repeated after 4 years,last time it touched 9.20 after hat it bounded back till 13.60.

1 day ago

Let's call the threshold "the Midas touch" for now, ok?

1 day ago

(a must sailang point)

1 day ago

Simon_khoo

Where are the naysayers?

1 day ago

When BAT stock price fell below rm9.26, the decision to sell 13,000 shares of MBB + 1,000 shares of UTDPLT was easy to make.
Then, picked up 14,000 shares of BAT at rm9.24, yesterday and today.

1 day ago

Vuse is SOP popular and sell like hot cake when i walk the mkt and the gred back,bat Malaysia is catching up and coming home strongly like us and some other

1 day ago

Im glad picked up at 9.28 10lots yesterday immediately it went down to 9.22 wow

1 day ago

Strawberry falvour is the most popular

1 day ago

It you watch closely the movement of bat the last 3-4 days ,it was very carefully planned and organised to created fear and to collected the cheaper

1 day ago

@DividendGuy67
This is not a stock to employ DCA strategy for sure.
Of course, I’ve never doubted your stance on BAT long term downtrend bias and -ve outlook overall or in general.

1 day ago

Simon_khoo

Don’t be surprised some positive announcements during budget 2024 next month. Government really needs $$$$$……

1 day ago

@Simon, majority odds 2024 Budget will be neutral for BAT. Only very small minority odds that government will do a complete U turn on GEG. If you are betting on a U turn on GEG, that’s like buying TOTO. 😂

1 day ago

Casino de bursa. Or is it Bursa de Casino 😂

1 day ago

@William, good to watch the price movements past 4 days but also watch price movement past 4 years and longer too so that you employ the right trading strategy. Many BAT retailers have been holding for longer than 4 months hoping for price to rise back and getting trapped. The longer they hold, the higher the odds of losing

1 day ago

@Ong, in i3, click on user name and you can see all of their past comments. There is enough clues if you study one’s comments to know which counter they are interested in.

1 day ago

Its definitely helpful to watch the chart movement long and short term,as the beginning it was around 40 them slowly move south till today price, however weak the price is now but its at around 80% discount, fundamentally cigarette is a business of very high yield return ,at the present price its really cant afford to miss,i notice the more you focus on the chart movement like 20 days movement or so on the more the shortish more than happy so that they can easily manupulated ,just go back to basic the return and the present price value, i had not lost a single cent on bat since i follow many years back because i know i cant control how other look at bat

20 hours ago

Most probably, the introduction of vape tax will be imposed.

19 hours ago