BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (M)
KLSE (MYR): BAT (4162)
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Last Price
9.33
Today's Change
+0.02 (0.21%)
Day's Change
9.31 - 9.39
Trading Volume
145,300
Details of Changes
Securities After Change
Transactions
| Ann. Date | Name | Details of Changes | Securities After Changes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Type | No. of Shares | Price | Direct (%) | Indirect (%) | Total (%) | ||||
Discussions
9 people like this. Showing 50 of 11,939 comments
https://punkjuicevapestore.co/collections/top-malaysian-brands
Where is Vuse?
4 days ago
Today is Bullish Engulfing candlestick, where today's close (9.5) is higher than yesterday's high (9.45).
Bulls should feel a sigh of relief.
However, if (low odds) Monday shows a Bearish Engulfing candlestick (e.g. if Monday's close is below 9.22), I think you will be glad to have your Stop Loss at 9.2 gets hit.
If Monday do a Bearish Engulfing, we could be looking at a serious downtrend continuation.
Nevertheless, I think less than 20% chance Monday will show a Bearish Engulfing. Next week majority odds will rise / flat.
4 days ago
DividenGuy67, may i know what your holding at this moment? Understand you hold 40 counters, would like to study it. Thank you.
4 days ago
Yup.....easy profit$ when buy real cheap....hehe
Be greedy when others are fearful, right?
4 days ago
When BAT stock price fell below rm9.26, the decision to sell 13,000 shares of MBB + 1,000 shares of UTDPLT was easy to make.
Then, picked up 14,000 shares of BAT at rm9.24, yesterday and today.
4 days ago
@DividendGuy67
This is not a stock to employ DCA strategy for sure.
Of course, I’ve never doubted your stance on BAT long term downtrend bias and -ve outlook overall or in general.
4 days ago
Don’t be surprised some positive announcements during budget 2024 next month. Government really needs $$$$$……
4 days ago
@Simon, majority odds 2024 Budget will be neutral for BAT. Only very small minority odds that government will do a complete U turn on GEG. If you are betting on a U turn on GEG, that’s like buying TOTO. 😂
4 days ago
@William, good to watch the price movements past 4 days but also watch price movement past 4 years and longer too so that you employ the right trading strategy. Many BAT retailers have been holding for longer than 4 months hoping for price to rise back and getting trapped. The longer they hold, the higher the odds of losing
4 days ago
@Ong, in i3, click on user name and you can see all of their past comments. There is enough clues if you study one’s comments to know which counter they are interested in.
4 days ago
when Vape tax is just 10%, Local Vape price will wipe-out illegal Import ( overseas transportation for foreign
already Cost 10% of its selling price---How to compete with local Brand---Sorry BAT should be International
Brand ) As Vape replaces premium Cigs, BAT revenue will expand rapidly bcos BAT has over 1000 local Outlet
3 days ago
It is strange that dividendguy has been too active at this BAT column even though he has sold all or most of the BAt.....Keep telling ppl to sell BAT as the nice guy to ask ppl dont be stubborn.......May i know what other counters in your portfolio n are U more in fundamental analysis or technical analysis? Any one know more detail what going on in the Vape market? For BAT to get better quarterly profit for next 2 quarters, the investors n top management just need the government to work harder to reduce iilicit cigarettes in the market..........BAT is undervalued if below 9.80, with so many ppl coming to this i3investor to give negative comments, either they know more or some force want to pull down the share price of BAT........ Not many research houses giving new TP for BAT in past 2 months....
2 days ago
@Kevin, I cut loss at 9.65, losing 2 sen - my average cost is 9.67. Normally, when I lose monies in a stock, I like to keep track of the stock for another year to see if my fundamental thesis is correct. I like to read fundamental comments here to see where the blindspots are. This is part of becoming a better investor. I don't mind being proven wrong by market. When I sell, I have a thesis and here, I feel it is a strong one.
I see from your past comments that you are advocating DCA for this stock. Why do you think this stock is under-valued and worth to average down? Are you aware that Vape market in Malaysia is now generating RM3.5 billion revenue? And cigarette market revenue is only RM4.9 billlion? And BAT share of Vape is hardly anything? Don't you think BAT is too late?
1 day ago
Google "size of vape market in Malaysia".
From Code Blue:
"KUALA LUMPUR, August 21 – The retail value for Malaysia’s vape market grew by 53 per cent from RM2.27 billion in 2019 to RM3.48 billion in 2023, according to an industry report.
The Malaysian Vape Industry Study 2023 by the Malaysian Vape Chamber of Commerce (MVCC) also revealed that the number of adult vape or e-cigarette users in Malaysia increased by 27 per cent from 1.1 million in 2019 to 1.4 million in 2022."
1 day ago
Google "size of cigarette market in Malaysia"
See Global data site:
"The Malaysia cigarettes market size was MYR4.89 billion ($1,182.4 million) in 2021 and is expected to decrease at a CAGR of more than 1% during 2021-2026. The tobacco business in Malaysia does not appear to have promising futures as total volumes are predicted to drop from 2021 to 2026. The industry is expected to post value growth which can be attributed to price increases majorly driven by increases in taxes on tobacco products."
1 day ago
Google "what is BAT share of cigarrette market in Malaysia" - you will realize BAT owns 52.4% of Malaysia cigarrette market and this market is declining.
You will also see BAT management keen to convert its cigarette smokers into Vape, not realizing that whilst the same customers are sticky on cigarettes, once they convert to Vape, they will have hundreds of other choices in Vape.
The Vape market is very, very different than cigarettes market.
1 day ago
So, these are my thesis. In cigarettes, BAT commands 52.4% of a declining market. In vape, BAT's a nobody, based on my research. I'm willing to monitor for a year to see if my thesis is right or not. Looking for people to provide counter examples to improve my learnings.
1 day ago
https://www.globaldata.com/store/report/malaysia-cigarettes-market-analysis/ - a good report. BAT is the market leader in cigarettes. Dunhill is the more recognized brand by BAT. The best thing is for BAT to protect its cigarette segment as it is a cash cow. The question is - is BAT Board and Management willing to hunker down, or will they follow ASTRO to be aggressive and die faster?
1 day ago
My experience with senior management and Board members is that they typically don't like to do nothing when market share is declining. They always want to do something. Especially when they are paid handsome fees - see the Annual Reports.
Because of this human nature, more likely than not, they will make mistakes and run the company to the ground. Because of this realization, I sold and exited.
1 day ago
It is human nature - Board and senior management nature - that when revenues decline, they will eventually sack the CEO. And replace the CEO with someone more aggressive. Then the CEO takes big bets, spend a lot, and basically run the company to the ground. Like new ASTRO CEO. Took on big debts to be aggressive and then, realize that it can no longer afford to pay high dividends because Finance costs that comes from big loans is unable to generate enough cash and so, they had to cut dividends drastically.
So far, based on what I've seen on BAT management, I haven't see they cut Directors fees by 20% yet. Like to see that before I go back in. For now, I have a feeling Director fees and CEO salaries will rise rather than cut 20%.
1 day ago
Warren Buffett is famous for saying this - "“When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.”"
In BAT's case, its business reputation (declining cigarette revenues) is likely to remain intact, no matter how good BAT management is. That's my thesis.
1 day ago
Someone once posted past 10 years of BAT EPS. My own tabulation showed me that past 8 years, its EPS has been declining. I don't think this is due to Management mistake, but cigarettes have a reputation for bad economics these recent years and I don't think this trend is going to do a U turn ... it's one of those macro trends that is likely to persist.
1 day ago
Looking at price action .. chart wise .. I think it's too early to try to catch the bottom. It is only starting its downtrend. My thesis is it needs to do what it did during Jul to Nov 2022 i.e. drop more, find a bottom, build a base, test the downtrend again and again ... and when it finally has built a base and couldn't go down anymore, then, that's the time to buy anticipating the next path is up. But that could take several months and meanwhile, I think we'll continue to see lower prices.
I'm willing to be wrong here and not lose, and being too early to catch a falling knife.
1 day ago
To be honest, in a long term down trend like BAT, I am only about 33% confident of winning the trade on the long side. So, I really need to see strong technical signal that the bottom is really in, it has been basing, it has been testing lower lows and fails.
Without this technical signal, I will prefer to miss the opportunity to win from the long side.
But you could be right ... maybe I should stop monitoring BAT and move on. Why trade from the long side in a downtrend ... maybe because I'm looking for the same opportunity that existed in Nov 2022 where BAT has a fast and nice run up - the trader side of me is "hooked" to try to find the right technical setup. Hence, I linger here to stay in touch with the market. I doubt anyone's comments here will move markets, as i3 is just one site.
1 day ago
What I find interesting is one of the commentators mentioned candlesticks. My experience with candlesticks is that it is random. E.g. last Friday, we have a bullish engulfing pattern, which is bullish. However, today's pattern negate that i.e. this is now a bullish reversal failure - indicating more lower prices to come. However, I think my view here is "random" i.e. 50/50 chance that this view will be wrong or right.
I've seen this randomness in candlesticks for many, many years (nearly 2 decades). I don't have an edge.
My edge comes in fundamental analysis (and combined with timing and technical patterns). Without fundamental analysis, my technical results is just 50/50. I'm willing to illustrate with BAT over time how random techical / candlestick trading really is.
1 day ago
Benjamin Graham is one of my favorite authors.
"In The Intelligent Investor, Benjamin Graham famously writes that: “Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike.” Graham viewed any purchase of a stock or bond as an investment in a business, rather than the purchase of just a piece of paper."
1 day ago
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/MYS/malaysia/smoking-rate-statistics
The % of Malaysians who smokes (legal and illegal cigarettes) has declined. GEG (Generation End Game), global trends and vaping/alternatives are likely to cause this % to continue to fall in future years.
1 day ago
Another reason to exit BAT is that if I am not mistaken, it is part of Bursa Malaysia Top 100 companies.
However, if BAT keeps declining, it will fall out of the Top 100 eventually.
That's when institutions will further dump this stock.
Just be aware that DCA this stock is probably not a good idea.
If you can't bring yourself to sell a losing stock, at least, don't throw good monies after bad investment.
I know how hard it is to sell at a loss.
1 day ago
For many of you who are long BAT for a long time and sitting at a loss and wondering what to do, I've been in this situation many times before and the only advice I have is - be a good trader.
If you want to do a DCA, be a good trader.
Know when market signals a price bottom.
Then, buy anticipating selling at higher price, regardless of prior average holding.
This way, you might lower your average cost from gains from trading.
However, this is easier said than done, even for very good traders who trades against the trend.
Much easier to cut loss and move on to new trades. Start with a clean slate.
1 day ago
Thanks everybody for great inputs. It's a forum to share their thoughts whether positive or negative...
I jumped off at 13 and on sideline and not sure timing to maybe, maybe only get in. So many currents affecting this counter.
Anyway good luck 😀🤞 evrryone
1 day ago
Sure a deep and wonderful research ,some long term holders may had bought at 30-40 high end price and is not advisable to sell at lost but instead continue to collect good dividend to counter the paper lost, they is no doubt tranditional cigarettes is on continuing down trends,at this transition into new generation of e- cigarettes vape.bat is playing catch-up and is in leading position in other countries
1 day ago
Smoking-related addiction is bad habit of the past. The new trend is social media addiction
1 day ago
I want to buy Vuse. But a quick google search and I have no idea where to buy. How.
1 day ago
Smoking-related addiction is bad habit of the past. The new trend is social media addiction for the younger generations
1 day ago
BAT's Vuse is rank #1 with ~41% vape addicts globally and has just been launched on 31 July, 2023 recently in Malaysia so the verdict about its popularity is still not determine yet however I anticipate or don't discard this product to gain traction in the next couple of months.
BAT Global Headquarters must begin to push for Vuse to be regarded as an exclusive brand akin to Dunhill perhaps exclusiveNameforVapeProducthill can do the trick.
Research and experiments must be done to find a secret ingredient for exclusiveNameforVapeProducthill to ensure success in the luxury tier.
1 day ago
Vaping and Popcorn Lung: Diacetyl is frequently added to flavored e-liquid to enhance the taste. Inhaling diacetyl causes inflammation and may lead to permanent scarring in the smallest branches of the airways — popcorn lung — which makes breathing difficult. Popcorn lung has no lasting treatment.
Vaping is bad for lungs. Smoking-related addiction, after all, is bad habit of the past. The new trend is social media addiction for the younger generations
1 day ago
This forum if can get input by those long time investors will push up the standard of the retail investors in Malaysia, anyway thanks for inputs n thoughts by Dividendguy even though had sold out most of the BAT. BAT facing declining profits in last few quarters, I entered into BAT in 2020 ( roughly that time), entry time it looked like BAT ngam ngam reached the bottom level at that time....My average cost is not that high if compare to those buying this counter since 2016-17. BAT is an international company n the top management should put effort to catch up the market share at Vape market ( even though they were late to get in ). As U said, it is not correct or wrong to foresee the near future profit level for one counter, some find it is attractive at this below 9.80 level , some think the quarterly profit will keep falling, worth less than 9.00. Thanks MOBAjob for his views as well....
20 hours ago
Vaping and Popcorn Lung: Diacetyl is frequently added to flavored e-liquid to enhance the taste. Inhaling diacetyl causes inflammation and may lead to permanent scarring in the smallest branches of the airways — popcorn lung — which makes breathing difficult. Popcorn lung has no lasting treatment.
Vaping is bad for lungs. Smoking-related addiction, after all, is bad habit of the past. The new trend is social media addiction for the younger generations
20 hours ago
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For this week, for those who are long, I strongly advise to put a Stop Loss at below 9.2. Today is a bullish engulfing pattern signaling a potential trend reversal. So, by right, price should rise next week, if today's bullish engulfing follows through. So, next week, we don't expect 9.2 if follow technical analysis. However, If next week touches 9.2, this stock is completely dead. Hence, by right, next week, should be low odds of seeing 9.2 and when there's a low odd event happening, you should have a stop loss there because it should be low odds to see the stop loss gets executed. Trade dynamically, because market is not static by dynamic. The stop loss after next week will be different and gets updated later.
4 days ago