OTB

I want to talk with facts and figures.
Based on TA or FA, the share price of YTLPower should be able to hit the target price set by HLIB at 2.90.

Based on TA, the trend of YTLPower chart is super bullish.
It is a strong uptrending stock, the share price will continue to break new high.

Based on FA, I try to use PAT to project share price of YTLPower in 2023/2024.
1.) Please note that Q4 Jun 2023 PAT at 1.13 billion alone is 93% of the (whole year) or annual PAT of 2010 at 1.211 billion.
2.) Highest PAT in 2010 = 1.211 billion, the share price was = 1.43 (record high share price).
3.) Highest PAT in 2023 = 2.022 billion, the share price should be = 2.39 (based on item 2 calculation).
4.) If the projected highest PAT in 2024 = 3.000 billion, the share price should be = 3.54 (based on item 2 calculation).
5.) If the projected highest PAT in 2024 = 2.422 billion, the share price should be = 2.86 (based on item 2 calculation).
6.) The target price set by HLIB at 2.90 is easily achievable if the PAT in 2024 is > 2.422 billion.

The PAT of FY2024 is higher than PAT of FY2023, there is a growth in PAT in FY2024.
The share price of YTLPower will move up north as long as there is a growth in PAT in FY2024.
The trading volume of YTLPower is so huge, big funds are buying this stock, hence it is very difficult for the share price to drop to a new low.
Let time tells us who is the eventual winner in this stock.
Thank you.

1 day ago

OTB

The following events will enhance the share price of YTLPower.
Based on FA
1. Listed in FTSE Asia-Pacific index on 18/9/2023. - Completed.
2. YTLPower might be added to FBMKLCI component stocks in December's review. Presently, YTLPower ranks no 23.
3. Good Q1 Sep 2024 result releases in November 2023. I believe the result is definitely better than Q1 Sep 2023 result.
4. Tan Sri Francis Yeoh promised to give out a dividend of 15 sen for FY2024.
5. The target price set by HLIB in 2023 is 2.90, I believe it is achievable.

TA reading.
The chart pattern of YTLPower is a "Cup And Handle Chart" pattern.
The pivot line is at 2.24.
The share price of YTLPower is in correction mode now.
The correction will take about 2 weeks to complete.
Once the correction is over, the share price will break the pivot line at 2.24 soon.
Once the "Cup And Handle Chart" is well formed, the share price will break new high moving toward 2.90 level.

Let time tells us who is the eventual winner in this stock.
Thank you.

1 day ago

MrFox

the target price set by HLIB in 2023 is 2.90, I believe it is achievable.
very sure? now already September!

1 day ago

UnknownSpecies

Thank you OTB for your insight.. Its good to have 2 point of views but it is getting irritating to keep seeing the frequent "sell" comment. Will you take responsibility if it turns bullish? if you give your views like OTB perhaps people can appreciate your comments a little bit more.

1 day ago

cgtan2020

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RBlDUgU4/
Looks like sideways pattern is there. between 2.24 and 2.08.

1 day ago

Ravi Kumar

rr88 and his punctured crystal ball. He talked so much about YTLPower going below 1.70 lol must be smoking crap

1 day ago

qwerty12

lol if go below 1.7 even better, just buy more

1 day ago

Zhuge_Liang

rr88 is the shameless liar in I3.
When the share price is up, he said he bought the shares.
rr88 will condemn the stock after he sold it.
There is no code of ethic here, no point to condemn the stock after he sold.
rr88 said that the share price of YTLP will drop to 1.28, no reason for him to long this stock.
Basically, rr88 is still telling big lies here.
rr88 chart reading skill is very poor, all predictions on AAX, Armada, UEMS, YTLPower and Supermx in 2020 are 100% wrong.
A shameless liar still continue to tell lies in this forum.
The face skin of rr88 is thicker than the wall of his toilet, he never feel shameful to tell lies here.
Mountain can change, human cannot change his bad character.

1 day ago

smartly

Posted by OTB > 7 hours ago | Report Abuse

rr88 is the shameless liar in I3,
The face skin of rr88 is thicker than the wall of the toilet, he never feel shameful in I3.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 4 minutes ago | Report Abuse

rr88 is the shameless liar in I3.
A shameless liar still continue to tell lies in this forum.
The face skin of rr88 is thicker than the wall of his toilet, he never feel shameful to tell lies here.

----------------------------------------------------

hahaha, @rr88, both OTB = Zhuge_Liang said the exact same words on you.
what have you done to make him so frustrated ?
r u simply a liar ? says thing without facts & figures ?
u better get your points up and defend, don't simply shout for nothing like
just an empty shell else better keep your mouth shut.
otw, peace will not be with you. LOL!

1 day ago

speakup

This forum reminds me of Hengyuan forum, semua gaduh gaduh je

1 day ago

smartly

Posted by speakup > 56 seconds ago | Report Abuse

This forum reminds me of Hengyuan forum, semua gaduh gaduh je
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOL !

1 day ago

icecool

gaduh gadub then the price go to the moon

1 day ago

dragon328

Hong Leong research releases an update report on YTL Power today after a meeting with the management. Key updates are:
1) YTLP management guided for earnings sustainability for next 3 years
2) PowerSeraya earnings for FY2024 will be stronger, driven by tight market supply, high locked-in retails margin and secured long term cheap LNG supply
3) The 45% asscoiate Attarat Power in Jordan will contribute total RM300 million earnings in FY2024 from operations & maintenance and interests from shareholders' loans
4) YTLDC will roll out total 500MW of green data centre over next 10 years with total investments of RM15 billion. The 1st phase of 72MW is under construction (48MW secured with SEA Group) and will start contributing earnings in early 2024.
5) The development of 500MW LSS with SIPP at Kulai site will primarily to support the green data centres there. In addition to this, there will be opportunity to roll out more solar power for potential RE export to Singapore as well as to meet demand in Malaysia under NETR
6) The development of WTE plant with KDEB with 58MW power output expandable to 122.5MW at later stage will ensure longer term earnings growth for YTLP

18 hours ago

KingKKK

4) YTLDC will roll out total 500MW of green data centre over next 10 years with total investments of RM15 billion. The 1st phase of 72MW is under construction (48MW secured with SEA Group) and will start contributing earnings in early 2024.

Data centre means higher demand for transformers.

This is good for Success Transformers (SUCCESS, Stock code: 7207), this is a laggard for data centre play theme

18 hours ago

dragon328

Hong Leong re-iterates tp of RM2.90 for YTLPower using sum-of-parts valuation.

It projects a net profit of RM2.0 billion for YTLP in FY2024. I think Hong Leong has under-estimated the following:
1) it has totally omitted earnings contribution from Attarat Power associate, by only recognising contribution from the O&M company and shareholders' loans. There should be potentially an additional RM200 million of profit to be recognised from the JV every year
2) Hong Leong may have under-estimated earnings contribution from PowerSeraya which alone should deliver at least RM2.07 billion net profit to YTLP in FY2024 & FY2025
3) Hong Leong has not included any earnings contribution from green data centre business

YTLP should be able to deliver net profit of around RM3.0 billion in FY2024, which will pose an upside of 50% to Hong Leong's projection. Once it manages to prove that in late Nov with the Q1 FY2024 result, I believe the analysts will upgrade their earnings projections for YTLP

17 hours ago

OTB

Based on FA, I try to use PAT to project share price of YTLPower in 2023/2024.
1.) Please note that Q4 Jun 2023 PAT at 1.13 billion alone is 93% of the (whole year) or annual PAT of 2010 at 1.211 billion.
2.) Highest PAT in 2010 = 1.211 billion, the share price was = 1.43 (record high share price).
3.) Highest PAT in 2023 = 2.022 billion, the share price should be = 2.39 (based on item 2 calculation).
4.) If the projected highest PAT in 2024 = 3.000 billion, the share price should be = 3.54 (based on item 2 calculation).

The PAT of FY2024 is higher than PAT of FY2023, there is a growth in PAT in FY2024.
The share price of YTLPower will move up north as long as there is a growth in PAT in FY2024.
The trading volume of YTLPower is so huge, big funds are buying this stock, hence it is very difficult for the share price to drop to a new low.
Let time tells us who is the eventual winner in this stock.
Thank you.

17 hours ago

dragon328

There are a several weak points in Hong Leong SOP valuation of YTLpower:

1) Wessex Waters' RAB has expanded to over 3.6 billion pounds, at 1.20x RAB, Wessex should be worth ((3.6 x 1.2) - 2.4) x 5.90 = RM11.3 billion, some RM1.2 billion higher than HL's value

2) PowerSeraya should deliver net profit of at least SGD760m a year for next 2-3 years. At PER of 10x (similar to that of Sembcorp and Keppel), PowerSeraya should be valued at SGD7.6 billion minimum. Minus net debt of SGD1.0bn, PowerSeraya should be worth SGD6.6bn or RM22.8 billion, some RM4.6bn higher than HL number

3) Attarat Power is expected to contribute earnings of RM400-500 million a year to YTLPower for next 30 years. Hence it should be valued at at least RM4.0billion to RM5.0 billion whether on PER or DCF method, doubling of what HL has valued

4) YTLP has an estimated net cash of almost RM2.0 billion at holding level, but HL has got it wrong at net debt of RM5.6 billion, a difference of RM7.6 billion

5) HL has not given any value to YTLP's green data centre business. As pointed out earlier, at NEXTDC valuation or Singtel's disposal of its regional data centre business to KKR at around USD35 million/MW, the 1st phase of 48MW data centre of YTLP should be valued at USD35m x 48 = USD1.68 billion or RM7.8 billion Enterprise Value. Minus out debt of RM1.1 billion for the 1st phase, the equity value should be worth RM6.7 billion.

With these 5 differences above, HL has under-estimated a total of RM22.3 billion or RM2.75 per share.

If added with this, the SOP valuation of YTLP should increase to RM3.23 + 2.75 = RM5.98 per share. Minus 10% holding discount, YTLP SOP value should be around RM5.38.

17 hours ago

OTB

The share price of YTLPower is in a technical bull market.
Likewise, Utilities Index is also in a technical bull market.
Even KLSE is bearish, the share price of YTLPower will continue to break new high soon.
Good luck to all investors in this forum.
Thank you.

17 hours ago

dragon328

Even if I take a 50% discount to regional data centre valuation, YTLP's 1st phase data centre will be worth RM2.8 billion or RM0.35 per share of YTLP. YTLP should be worth RM4.90 per share based on SOP valuation above.

Just imagine when YTLP fully develops the 500MW green data centre at Kulai, how much value it will add?

17 hours ago

MrFox

whateverlah! this counter is a must buy for investment

17 hours ago

cgtan2020

@dragon328 got link to HLB updated report?

17 hours ago

Go lucky Happy

@dragon328, agree with you. Added to that, ytlpower is also supporting TNB in providing electricity in our country.

17 hours ago

dragon328

@cgtan2020, I cannot find you in i3 messenger and send you the file. Perhaps you message me first then I send you the pdf file

16 hours ago

dragon328

http://www.hlgs.hongleong.com.my/published/article/SmprHzLsdd4ArFSiPqB53BVVOwuebLyeX1BBkEl5PN_u7GXBlESj1SjNRLqUcnohTTwtyZNEPqr8kmXxRZNZhnbPbBDnd4qNpWyHJTxMwPs1

try this link

16 hours ago

yewnamhung

Ini macam 👍👍👍

16 hours ago

dragon328

Hong Leong has valued PowerSeraya based on 3.5x Price/Book FY2022, but PowerSeraya book value has increased over SGD600 million in past 12 months to June 2023 (with net debts reduced by the same). Hence, PowerSeraya valuation should be increased by SGD600m x 3.5 = SGD2.1 billion or RM7.1 billion to RM25.3 billion.

15 hours ago

probability

thanks for the link @dragon328

15 hours ago

OnTime

it's comforting to know ytlp management has such a long range business visibility.

15 hours ago

KLV868

Very fruitful & informative comments from your guys , thanks, I am looking forward to the end of the year who is handsome winner that prevail.

15 hours ago

MrFox

very good mid day closing

14 hours ago

jenson68

Great news & thx for the update @dragon328 !! HL very optimistic on the TP , gogogo

13 hours ago

UnknownSpecies

HLIB sees potential inclusion of YTL Corp, YTL Power into KLCI in November review
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/683523

13 hours ago

xiaochen

According to HLIB,
For YTLP, the investment bank kept its “buy” rating and target price unchanged at RM2.90.
HLIB does not have a rating for YTL Corp, but has opined that it has a fair value of RM2.10.

Difference is 80c.

13 hours ago

dragon328

Hong Leong has not given any value to YTLP sum-of-parts (SOP) valuation on the following:

1) Yes 5G business
2) Rawang WTE plant
3) Digital bank JV
4) Potential solar power farm in Malaysia to meet NETR demands
5) Potential RE export to Singapore

13 hours ago

OTB

Dear dragon328,
From your opinion, what is the PBT or PAT in FY2024 result for the followings ?
1.) Water & sewerage
2.) Telecommunication (5G YES)
3.) Data Centre
Please advise.
Thank you.

13 hours ago

dragon328

Mr. OTB, I will try to give my best estimates for earnings contribution for the 3 sectors you asked above.

First, Wessex Waters reported a pretax loss last quarter Q4 FY2023 of RM57 million as it accrued a non-cash provision of RM54 million forindex-linked bonds.

As UK central bank just announced to pause interest rate hike in its last meeting a couple of days ago, I expect no more provision on index-linked bonds in the following quarters, and hence I expect Wessex just to break even for Q1, Q2 & Q3 FY2024.

Depending on how much water tariff hike it can secured for period commencing 1st April 2024, Wessex should start reporting profits from Q4 FY2024.

Assuming it can secure another 9% averaged hike in water tariffs, I expect Wessex to report PBT of RM88 million for Q4 FY2024.

12 hours ago

dragon328

As for Yes 5G business, I see encouraging signs in last few months after Yes was the first to roll out 5G services in Klang Valley expanding to the rest of Malaysia.

In FY2023, YTLP telecommunications segment reported revenue of RM603m and pretax loss of RM268 million. Assuming gross margin of 50%, Yes will need additional revenue of RM268m x 2 = RM530 million a year to break even.

Hence, I think Yes will need a minimum 1.5 million 5G active subscribers to break even at average monthly fee of RM60:

Revenue = RM60 x 1.5m x 3 mths = RM270 million per quarter or RM1.1 billon a year
Gross profit = 50% = RM135 million per quarter or RM540 million a year (after DNB assess fee)
Estimated overhead of about RM120 million a quarter, so Yes would make a profit of RM15m a quarter or RM60m PBT a year when it achieves 1.5 million 5G active subscribers.

If it can get 2 million 5G active subscribers, then revenue will be RM360m a quarter, gross profit of RM180m/qtr and pretax profit of RM60 million a quarter or RM240 million a year.

12 hours ago

ChloeCheong

wow, that was a splendid estimation, dragon328

12 hours ago

dragon328

As for green data centre business, the management has guided for PBT of RM100 million a year for the 1st phase of 48MW.

From my own simulation for loan tenor of 10 years, IRR of 15%, Pretax profit will range from RM65m in initial years rising to RM135 million when loans are fully repaid, so averaged RM100 million a year.

As the 1st phase will complete in early 2024, so we may only see full contribution from Q4 FY2024 onwards.

12 hours ago

cgtan2020

@dragon328 thanks for the link

12 hours ago

dragon328

5G business is a volume game, the profit estimation figures above may not look too impressive, but the profit increase will be exponential once it achieves the critical mass.

If Yes can get 3 million subscribers at RM60/mth, then it may achieve revenue of RM2.1 billion a year and RM600 million pretax profit a year.

If it could get 3 million subscribers at RM120/mth, then revenue would be RM4.3 billion a year and pretax profit would be RM1.7 billion a year, similar to what Telekom Malaysia is doing now with 3 million unifi subscribers.

11 hours ago

OTB

Good explanation.
Thank you dragon328.

11 hours ago

OTB

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/680105
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/680085

I am positive on Malaysia stock market or KLSE over the next 3 years because our PM DSAI has done a good job to attract FDI and foreign funds to invest in our KLSE.
Focus on technical bull market sectors to win big in the next 3 years.
If the stock and the sector are in technical bull market, the stock and sector will perform very well even FBMKLCI is still in a technical bear market situation.
Our KLSE has not perform well in the last 30 years.
I still remember FBMKLCI was at record high 1,332 in January 1994, the FBMKLCI increased only 100 points until 2023.
JSX or Indonesian stock market has increased 650% in the last 30 years.

The share price of YTLPower was at the peak at 1.43 in 2010, since then the share price has been in the downtrend until early 2023.
The share price started to move up north at the end of May 2023 after a good Q3 March 2023 result. The share price at that time is around 1.20.
The PAT for FY2010 was 1.211 billion, if PAT for FY2024 is > 2.453 billion, the target price at 2.90 is very fair.
No reason to argue that the share price has increased from 0.70 to 2.11 (21/9/2023), hence the share price cannot move up further.
The share price of YTLPower can only move down to 1.28.
This argument is not based on facts and figures, but rather base on bullshit and telling lies.
We like to listen to a second opinion so that we are not wrong, you must substantial your argument based on your facts and figures.
I will respect you a lot if you talk with facts and figures.
Thank you.

11 hours ago

Invest_888

Bought some at RM2.09. Foreign traders will lose money if drop below RM2.08.

10 hours ago

ValueInvestor888

Anwar promoting Msia in US currently. If YTLP can secure big name in tech like google to take up some MW power for YTL Green Data Centre in Johor, then price will fly. Just a dream...😄

10 hours ago

Ninja _07

No power already 🐌

10 hours ago

KLV868

@OTB Hi , with you experience as a remisier , i would like to seek your opinion about 1 scenario ; In the "Q" quantity in buy and sell column , why there was ALWAYS same both buy and sell Q-qty being cancelled . "FOR TODAY is-470200shares" ,normally at 2 bids below and above from transacted price?

10 hours ago

OTB

KLV868,
I may not understand your question fully, I just try to answer your question.
If I answer wrongly, please raise your question again in more detail manner.
If I am not wrong, these orders (both buy and sell orders with same quantity) are married deal orders. These orders are restricted to the named or designated brokers only, others cannot execute these orders.
Once the married deals are done by both designated brokers, these orders are disappeared from the screen as if these orders are cancelled.
Hope I explain your question correctly.
Thank you.

9 hours ago

Goldberg

The appreciation of the market capitalisation of YTL Corp Bhd and YTL Power International Bhd has raise their chances of being included into the 30-stock FBM KLCI in the upcoming November review, according to Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB).

“Based on the current market capitalisation of YTL Corp and YTL Power, both entities are currently ranked above the 25th position within the KLCI. If this is maintained, both will be automatically included into the bellwether index in the upcoming November review,” HLIB said in a note on Friday.

The excitement mainly revolves around YTL Power, whose prospects HLIB remains upbeat about, with guided earnings sustainability for the next three years, partly driven by the group’s power business in Singapore through YTL PowerSeraya Pte Ltd.

“PowerSeraya’s earnings are expected to be stronger for the financial year ending June 30, 2024, driven by the tight power market situation, high lock-in retail prices, and low liquefied natural gas cost in the long term,” said the investment bank.

Moreover, HLIB said YTL Power’s venture into renewable energy (RE) and digitalisation areas are strategically in line with the government’s National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR).
The group has planned for 500 megawatt (MW) in data centre capacity over 10 years, investments worth RM15 billion.

HLIB said the first phase of 72MW, of which 48MW is secured for SEA Ltd, is under construction, and will be completed in stages over four years, with contributions starting in early 2024.
“When the assets mature, we do not discount potential monetisation,” said the investment bank.
HLIB said the development of YTL Power's 500MW large-scale solar project will eventually be developed to support the green energy supply to the group’s data centres.

“We believe there is an exciting future for the segment, as demand for green data centres is on the rise, with new opportunities to export RE to Singapore under the NETR by leveraging PowerSeraya,” it said.

Therefore, HLIB opined that YTL Power’s current valuation is “undemanding”, while earnings and dividends may “continue to surprise to the upside”.


https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/683523

8 hours ago

MrFox

yes! hope the positivity will dtive the counter furthet north!

7 hours ago